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Sunday, July 29, 2012

Dream Team vs. Redeem Team

I was going to hold my tongue and not make any Team USA comparisons. Then Spain's (and the Memphis Grizzlies') center Marc Gasol had to mess around and say this:


"On a bad day for the '92 team, the current team would lose by just 15 or 20 points against them"


That's ridiculous, on a bad day for the '92 team, Larry Bird and John Stockton play heavy minutes. Why is that a bad thing? Well, at 35, Larry Bird was the oldest member of the Dream Team and only played in 2 of the 8 games at the Olympics. John Stockton was 30 and there's no way he would be able to stay in front of ANY guard on the 2012 roster. There's absolutely no way that the '92 team wins by 15 to 20 points on a bad day. Gasol is just speaking in hyperbole, I'll drop the exaggeration for an understatement. I know a team that the '92 team would have trouble with on a GOOD day for them. And it's not the 2012 team. It's another Team USA roster with a catchy name, the 2008 Redeem Team. That's right folks, I'm going there. Sit down, grab some popcorn, 'cause you gon learn today


(Aside: I'm comparing the 1992 and 2008 teams on the court. Not their basketball legacies. Or their cultural impact. Just the on-the-court product. The 1992 team wins those other comparisons in a landslide.)


Reason #1: Age




Average age of the 1992 team: 29, 5/12 players older than 30 (Bird, Stockton, Drexler, Ewing, Johnson)

Average age of the 2008 team: 26, 1/12 players older than 30 (Kidd)


The difference in average age for these teams is just 3 years, but that is a world of difference in sports. Most athletes peak between the age of 26 and 29. That means that the 2008 team is loaded with players that were beginning their statistical prime while the 1992 team was stacked with guys that were never going to contribute the way they used to (that's how you end up with Larry Bird only playing 2 games). Both teams would have to end up playing their benches and I’m not frightened when I look down the Dream Team bench. The Redeem team is more likely to give up their seat in public transportation to some of the old guys on the 1992 team than worry about their crossover.


Reason #2: Better international competition


In 1992, the Dream Team ran roughshod over their competition. They won their 8 games by an average of 43.8 points. And after watching the NBA TV documentary on the Dream Team, the scores were not indicative of the gulf in talent between Team USA and the rest of the world. (I think the gap between Tom Hanks and Paul Walker might be close. Maybe Julia Roberts and Snooki?)


The rest of the world learned that day. Since that summer in Barcelona, basketball federations in Argentina, Brazil, Spain, and France built elite programs. Globally, the quality of play improved dramatically. By the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Argentina was competitive enough to defeat Team USA, marking the first time that a team of professionals had failed to win the gold medal in 4 attempts.


The 2008 Redeem Team was born from the failures of the 2004 team and the triumph of international competition.  In 1992, the NBA had 21 international players (5% of all players); currently, there are 84 international players (19% of all players). The Redeem Team faced an overall quality of competition that toughened them in a way that the Dream Team would have never experienced.


Onions! verdict:
Team age and quality of opponents are sizable advantages for the Redeem Team. The 1992 version of several Dream Team players is an older shell of the legacies that we remember so fondly (Bird and Magic never won a playoff series after the 1991 season). Yeah, names like Michael Redd, Carlos Boozer, and Tayshaun Prince won’t end up in the hall of fame. But that’s not what a game between the Dream Team and the Redeem Team would boil down to. Young legs, better depth, and a more competitive international culture would put the Redeem team in position to take down the Dream Team. Book it

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